Tianmu Lake (603136): Zhong Lingyuxiu’s growth is expected

Tianmu Lake (603136): Zhong Lingyuxiu’s growth is expected

Investment Points Rare private-run scenic spots started from scratch, with a stable team, rich experience, and highly consistent interests.

Starting from two speedboats in 1992, four scenic spots have been built: Shanshui Garden, Nanshan Bamboo Sea, Yushui Hot Spring and Water World. At the same time, it has carried out hotels, travel agencies and other businesses, and is committed to becoming a one-stop tourist and leisure model in East China.
The founding team has a total of 6 natural persons. All of them are senior executives except one who resigned in November 18. The team is stable and deeply cultivated in the industry. The founding team holds shares, the interests are highly consistent, and the development has momentum.

Existing attractions verify core capabilities, and product thinking and operational capabilities build core barriers.

Employees are highly motivated and cultivate core barriers: 1) Positioning to meet the market: Located in the center of the Yangtze River Delta, the transportation is convenient, and the leisure positioning attracts the needs of self-driving travel, and follows the trend.

In 18 years, the passenger flow of Shanshui Garden and Nanshan Bamboo Sea is estimated to increase by 1.

69% and 4.

88% is expected to maintain positive growth.

2) Design multi-party synergy: Scenic spots synchronize to extend customer stay time, increase single customer value, increase secondary travel; Water World, hot spring products and related areas form off-season synergy; differentiated product tone, the hotel achieves “light luxury-High-end “-Mid-end-Economy” matrix.

3) Digging deep into secondary consumption: The project design is highly integrated with the ecology of the scenic spot. Secondary consumption and merchandise sales account for 44% and 7% of the prospective business income in 2016, respectively. It continues to innovate around consumer demand and has growth elasticity.

4) Flexible and precise marketing: The marketing, planning, and marketing teams work closely together to achieve a, integrated marketing of multiple attractions, the normalization of joint tickets, and more than 80% of the ticket revenue of the two major attractions is realized in a joint ticket mode.

b. Themed tourism + event marketing is rich, precise marketing, and enhanced value-added.

Individualized high-quality ecology enhances profitability, direct sales guarantee cash flow, and ROE leads the industry.

1) The proportion of individual visitors is more than 60%, and the ecology is good; the feedback of the word of mouth effect is benign, and the scores of all attractions are over 4.

5 points; the direct ticket sales ratio is nearly 60%, reducing sales discounts.

2) The ratio of ticket receipts + advance receipts is about 88%, cash flow is good, and the proportion of cash and revenue received from sales of goods and services continues to exceed 100%.

Benefiting from high asset turnover and profitability, ROE led the industry in 17 years, and in 18 years affected by listing, ROE replaced 北京夜网 13.

06%, still outstanding in scenic companies.

Supported by core capabilities and market demand, expansion + management output opens up space.

1) Yushui Hot Spring Phase II Bamboo Creek Valley Project is expected to be put into operation by the end of 19, with a planned total investment of more than 300 million; a single hotel in the hot spring, aimed at high-end vacations, plans to build about 107 rooms, with an estimated average price of 2,500 yuan /Every night, it is estimated that the annual revenue increase after mature operation is about 58 million yuan, and the net profit increase after tax is about 11 million yuan.

2) The Tianmu Lake Base opened for healing and recuperation, to meet the needs of the group and enhance its popularity. It has generated revenue of 871 in 18 years.

150 thousand yuan, net 武汉夜生活网 profit 55.

360,000 yuan.

3) The Daxi Reservoir is yet to be developed, and its resource reserves are still available.

4) The company plans to focus on both sides and promote the extension model: restructuring, optimizing investment projects, and organizing the implementation of refinancing work; gradually, promoting strategic cooperation projects, gradually entrusting management and management agreements to achieve management output, and the growth potential brought by successful experience replicationperiod.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: Assuming that Zhuxi Valley opened in Q4 in 19 and results will be produced in 20 years, it is expected that the net profit attributable to the mother will be 1 in 19-21.

24 (+19.

99%), 1.

49 (+20.

27%), 1.

67 (+11.

82%) billion yuan, corresponding to 25, 21, and 18 times the PE.

Peer attractions companies are expected to average an average of about 38 times in 19 years; Songcheng Performing Arts’ main business assessment is 29 times, combined with the company ‘s future expansion of the company ‘s assets and strategic plans for external extension, and private exceptions to reduce the impact of price reductions.With the estimated premium, the target is estimated at 30 times and the target price is 46.

5 yuan, the first coverage given a “buy” rating.

Risk reminder: passenger flow, customer unit price is lower than expected, project progress, and extension expansion are lower than expected.